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Month: November 2016

Winning Fast, Winning Slow

Winning Fast, Winning Slow

En route to a Maui Invitational championship, Carolina faced opponents at either end of the tempo spectrum. Oklahoma State, who the Heels blew out in the semifinals, ranks 10th in the nation with an adjusted pace of 75.4 possessions / 40. Conversely, UNC’s victim in the title game, Wisconsin, plods along at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the country (62.5 possessions / 40). Not surprisingly, there were 78 possessions in the OSU game and only 65.5 against the Badgers. Perhaps more…

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Career Leaderboard Updates

Career Leaderboard Updates

Just sent out the inaugural weekly(ish) newsletter for The Secondary Break. So be sure to subscribe to the mailing list (see the bottom right of the site) if you’re interested in having updates and Carolina/ACC basketball datasets delivered to your inbox. In this edition, I included a link to my UNC Lineups spreadsheet that includes +/- and 4 Factors data for every Carolina combination and player this season. Future newsletters will contain additional data links– things like defensive charting, historical…

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Defensive Charting vs. Oklahoma State

Defensive Charting vs. Oklahoma State

Some quick thoughts on the defense against Oklahoma State– first here’s the defensive boxscore: Guarding Juwan Evans: Evans is a really talented lead guard, who’s especially adept at utilizing the high-ball screen. While the comparisons to Chris Paul may be a bit overstated, Evans did consistently make good decisions following a ball screen (and the Cowboys set one for him on nearly every possession he was on the court). Luckily for the Heels, his teammates (a mediocre group in general)…

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The Kenny Williams Effect

The Kenny Williams Effect

Through six games (and 240 minutes) this season, North Carolina’s minutes at the 2-guard spot have been divided roughly evenly between senior Nate Britt and sophomore Kenny Williams. Each has started a trio of games, with Britt logging 122 minutes at shooting guard (along with a handful at the point) compared to Williams’s 101 (plus about 25 minutes at the 3). So how has the team performed with the two platooning shooting guards on the floor? Let’s dig into the…

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Early-Season Defensive Charting Insights

Early-Season Defensive Charting Insights

While the last post dumped a bunch of defensive charting data, it didn’t do much in explaining a.) what the numbers mean, or b.) what else I’ve observed beyond the numbers based on careful re-watching/charting. So, without further ado: Ball-screen defense: there are many ways to defend a ball screen, but Roy Williams’s preferred technique has alway been for the on-ball defender to fight over top of the pick, while the help defender hedges then recovers to his rolling/popping man….

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Intro to Defensive Charting

Intro to Defensive Charting

Defensive charting is a concept formalized by basketball analytics pioneer Dean Oliver in his seminal work,¬†Basketball on Paper. More recently, it’s been used by basketball writers/analysts like Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated and David Hess at TeamRankings.com. As Hess explains here, defensive charting consists of rigorous review of a game tape (the 8-second rewind button is a charter’s best friend!) to allocate credit and blame to individual defenders. Compared to traditional methods like boxscore stats (steals and blocks) and the…

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The Friday Clipboard

The Friday Clipboard

Get out your clipboards, Carolina fans, it’s time for some notes and statistical nuggets related to Tar Heels hoops. Soon, the plan for this Friday feature will combine this blog post with a subscriber-only weekly newsletter that goes into even deeper detail on some of these charting metrics (including leaderboards/tables). So, if you’re interested in receiving that weekly email (the first one is scheduled to go out next Friday), please sign up¬†via the web form. I’m also experimenting with the…

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Joel Berry’s Quest for the Rafters

Joel Berry’s Quest for the Rafters

Based simply on Joel Berry’s basic boxscore stats, it’s clear that he’s off to a ridiculously strong start to his junior campaign. He’s parlayed a 62.1%/53.3%/90.9% shooting line into 21.3 points per game, while maintaining a Lawson-like 4.33:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s also drawing fouls at an elite level (FTA Rate of 75.9) to elevate his obscene eFG% of 75.9 to an even more ungodly TS% of 81.8. After a 2-for-4 start from the charity stripe, he’s knocked down his last…

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The Potential +/- Impact of Theo Pinson’s Injury

The Potential +/- Impact of Theo Pinson’s Injury

With the late-October announcement that Theo Pinson is out indefinitely with a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot, Roy Williams loses his most versatile rotational piece. Last season, Pinson was the only Heel to log 100+ minutes at each of three positions: 182 at shooting guard, 403 at small forward, and 171 as a small-ball power forward. Overall in 2015-16, UNC’s minutes were split nearly equally between Pinson on the floor and him on the bench. As seen in…

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